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The Real Winner in Afghanistan’s Election

By Craig Charney and James Stavridis | Insights | Series II | No. 5 | June 2014

We don’t know yet who will prevail in Afghanistan’s approaching presidential runoff, but we already know the big winner — the Afghan people. The big loser, of course, is the…

Afghanistan | Counter Insurgency

Afghan Civil Society Assessment

Report | December 1, 2011 | 80 pages

This report offers an evaluation of the progress made by Afghan Civil Society organizations since 2005 by drawing on key informant and focus group interviews. It assesses the impact of the USAID-funded Initiative to Promote Afghan Civil Society (IPACS) on organizations that have participated in the program.

Afghanistan’s Reasons for Optimism

By Craig Charney and James Dobbins | The Washington Post | May 31, 2011 | 4 pages

This article discusses the findings of a Washington Post-ABC News Poll in which Afghans express their optimism about their future. This surprising optimism has deep roots in the underlying realities. Afghanistan people are making sensible judgments.

Afghanistan | Corporate

Booming Afghan Biz: One Key to Long Term Peace

By Craig Charney & Mohammed Nasib | New York Post | July 24, 2010 | 5 pages

This article discusses an under-reported phenomenon occurring in Afghanistan – its booming economy and the optimism of Afghan firms regarding the future. Prosperity in economic terms is key to long term peace and Afghanistan is making tremendous progress since the Taliban’s overthrow.

Afghanistan | Counter Insurgency

The Surge is Working

By Craig Charney | Newsweek | March 1, 2010 | 4 pages

This Daily Beast article discusses why President Obama’s Afghanistan counterinsurgency troop surge strategy is working. Taliban’s influence is dwindling all across Afghanistan, bar Helmand province—its stronghold. Afghanistan’s demography, sociology, military situation, and politics jointly explain this evolvement.

Afghanistan | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

Afghan Business Attitudes on the Economy, Government, and Business Organizations

Report | January 1, 2010 | 38 pages

The development of a thriving, dynamic, and resilient commercial sector in Afghanistan is crucial to maintain political stability in the country and achieve long-term security from both internal and external threats. This report, based on survey research, offers insights into attitudes of Afghan businesses with regards to their own and other community prospects.

Afghanistan | Conflict Resolution & Security

New Strategies for Afghanistan

Report | January 1, 2008 | 22 pages

Craig Charney presents the findings of the Charney/ABC News Afghanistan poll at the Center for National Policy. Charts reveal public opinion trends in Afghanistan and strategic implications for the rest of the world.

Afghanistan | Conflict Resolution & Security

Afghans’ Criticism of US Effort Rises: In the Southwest, Taliban Support Grows

Report | December 3, 2007 | 34 pages

This report, based on an ABC News/BBS/ARD poll, examines Afghans’ opinions both of U.S. efforts and the Taliban. Frustrated by ongoing violence and uneven development, Afghans have grown sharply more critical of U.S. efforts in their country—and in the beleaguered Southwest, support for the Taliban, ousted from power six years ago, is on the rise.

Afghanistan | Conflict Resolution & Security | Democracy - Civil Society

Hearts and Minds: Afghan Opinion on the Taliban, Government, and International Forces

Report | August 1, 2007 | 6 pages

This brief from a discussion of a panel of experts at a meeting of the United States Institute of Peace’s Afghanistan Working Group discusses current trends in public opinion in Afghanistan with regards to the performance of the Afghan government and the Taliban resurgence. Since the election of new leaders and the establishment of a new constitution, the government of Afghanistan has been trying to prove its legitimacy and ability to foster stability, security, and the rule of law. The Taliban resurgence is playing a major role in public perception of the government’s competence and the role of the international forces. Understanding these current trends in public opinion can aid in tailoring the international intervention to ensure that prior progress is not lost and that elements corroding the strength of the state are diminished.

Afghanistan | Counter Insurgency | Gender

There’s Grounds for Hope in Afghanistan

By Craig Charney and Isobel Coleman | CFR.org | June 18, 2007 | 5 pages

This article for The Globe and Mail discusses the reasons to be hopeful with regards to the potential for positive changes in Afghanistan: Afghans themselves are changing their society, with Afghan women playing a leading role. Despite the Taliban’s military revival, Afghan women have won broad support for their rights to study, work, and vote, largely gained since the Taliban’s 2001 ouster, and overwhelmingly reject their former oppressors. But, at the same time, Afghans are struggling to reconcile many of their Islamic traditions with the modern world, as the case of women also shows.

Afghanistan | Development

Afghan Human Development Report

Report | January 1, 2007 | 198 pages

This report outlines the economic growth and social development in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2007, and the challenges facing continuous development. For Afghans, human development means government institutions and a society that educates its young, offers medical services to all, facilitates sustainable livelihoods, and ensures peace in a manner consistent with Island.

Afghanistan | Conflict Resolution & Security | Democracy - Civil Society

Misunderstanding Afghanistan

By Craig Charney and Gary Langer | The Washington Post | December 17, 2006 | 5 pages

This Washington Post article discusses misconceptions within the West with regards to the conditions in Afghanistan. The full picture of Afghanistan’s rugged terrain is much more complex: While active, the Taliban lacks popular support. Though Karzai’s honeymoon is over, he retains majority backing. The Afghan state is relatively weak, but it is present—and popular, in most of the country. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is a country where the populace favors the U.S. and allied military presence.

Afghanistan | Conflict Resolution & Security | Democracy - Civil Society

Strife Erodes Afghan Optimism Five Years After the Taliban’s Fall

Report | January 1, 2006 | 27 pages

This report of a survey conducted by Charney Research for ABC News/BBC World Services discuses the various reasons why optimism has declined within Afghanistan five years after the fall of the Taliban.

Afghanistan | Conflict Resolution & Security | Democracy - Civil Society

Despite Deep Challenges in Daily Life, Afghans Express a Positive Outlook

Report | December 7, 2005 | 4 pages

This article of a survey conducted for ABC News by Charney Research of New York with field work by the Afghan Center for Social and Opinion Research in Kabul finds that four years after the fall of the Taliban, Afghans express both vast support for the changes that have shaken their country and remarkable optimism for the future, despite the deep challenges they face in economic opportunity, security and basic services alike.

Afghan Success Story

By Craig Charney | The Washington Post | July 30, 2004 | 2 pages

This Washington Post article discusses Charney Research’s survey results that gauged the interest of Afghan citizens in upcoming elections. Charney’s survey showed that nearly three years after U.S. troops launched the war on terrorism in Afghanistan to drive out the Taliban and Osama bin Laden, Afghans want democracy. Though big problems — public ignorance, administrative and partisan difficulties, and insecurity — must be faced if the elections are to succeed, the research indicates democracy’s chances in Afghanistan may be better than widely thought.

Optimism in Afghanistan

By Ryan Sager | New York Post | July 27, 2004 | 2 pages

This New York Post article discusses the results of the first-ever public opinion poll conducted in Afghanistan by Charney Research showing that people there are optimistic about the future and excited about upcoming elections. Afghanistan has a constitution, is registering voters and is moving toward holding a presidential election in October.

Voter Education Planning Survey: Afghanistan 2004 National Elections

Report | July 1, 2004 | 124 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on a public opinion poll consisting of a random, representative sample of 804 in-person interviews offers detailed, quantified information on the knowledge and attitudes of Afghan citizens regarding their country’s September 2004 national elections. The mood is positive in most of the country, with Afghans identifying the major problems facing their country as its weak economy, the security situation, a poor education system, and shattered infrastructure. Nonetheless, a large majority is pleased with the Transitional Government and President Karzai’s job performance.

Ask the Afghans, And they’ll tell you they’re looking forward to their first free elections.

By Craig Charney | The Weekly Standard | May 17, 2004 | 4 pages

This article discusses the results of a poll consisting of in-depth, open-ended interviews intended to offer a window on the views of the Afghan electorate. While unease has grown in Kabul with the Taliban and its allies increasing their pressure, something different and important has been happening in the provinces, much less reported. Many Afghans have come to feel hopeful about their country and look forward to its first free elections, planned for September.

Voices of Afghanistan: Afghans Speak about Their Country, Elections, Gender, and Democracy

Report | March 1, 2004 | 76 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on 32 in-depth interviews offers an assessment of what typical Afghan voters think about various issues related to the upcoming elections and possible voter education campaigns. The Afghans interviewed are optimistic about their country’s future because the beginnings of peace, normality, and reconstruction outweigh their disappointment over continuing problems of insecurity, warlordism, and poverty.

Cambodia | Democracy - Civil Society

Afghanistan: Bullets vs. Ballots

By Craig Charney | New York Post | December 4, 2003 | 2 pages

This New York Post article describes terrorist activities in Kabul with the reappearance of the Taliban in the country’s southeast, and the changing tactics being deployed to prevent the continuance of a resurgent enemy as Afghans are determined to rebuild their country, working with foreign help.

Cambodia

Counting on the Young

By Phnom Penh | The Economist | July 31, 2003 | 3 pages

This article for The Economist discusses the July 2003 national elections in Cambodia, Cambodia’s fourth election since the end of its 20-year civil war. Poll passed peacefully by Cambodia’s standards despite concerns expressed earlier. SO what does CPP’s strong showing reveal about its future?

Democracy in Cambodia – 2003: A Survey of the Cambodian Electorate

Report | May 16, 2003 | 103 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on survey research consisting of a random, representative sample of 1,008 in-person interviews provides detailed information on the knowledge and attitudes of Cambodian voters. The survey also provides measures of the progress of democratization in Cambodia and the impact of voter education projects.

Cambodia | Democracy - Civil Society

Voter and Civic Education Needs for the 2003 Cambodian National Assembly Elections

Report | January 1, 2003 | 26 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on 15 in-depth interviews offers an assessment of attitudes towards the July 2003 national elections in Cambodia and the development of democracy there more generally. The survey results indicate some progress in the consolidation of democracy in Cambodia over the past three years, although they also show that the country still needs assistance in voter education and other areas before it can be considered a fully functioning democracy.

China

China | Development | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT: China’s New Open Door: The E-Commerce Boom

By Shehzad Qazi | Insights | Series II | No. 6 | September 2014

China is already the world’s largest retail market and its e-commerce is booming. E-tailers now command soaring sales, better pricing, and a stronger online presence compared to their brick-and-mortar cousins. Learn more about China’s retail of e-tailing in China in our exclusive report.

Asia | China | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

China Beige Book Shows Economy Stuck in Low Gear

Bloomberg | September 22, 2014

China | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

This China Slowdown Is Different

By Leland R. Miller and Craig Charney | The Wall Street Journal | July 14, 2014

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, China Beige Book authors Leland Miller and Craig Charney assert that Chinese capital expenditure is the weakest it has been in over a decade and may indicate a continued investment downshift that will be difficult to reverse. This slowdown is not merely a result of artificially-constrained investments but also a slowdown in demand and consumption.

China | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

Survey Suggests China May Finally Be Getting the Message on Debt

By Richard Silk | The Wall Street Journal | June 23, 2014

Only 19% of companies reported accessing credit during the second quarter of the year, down from 30% a year ago, according to the China Beige Book, a private-sector polling organization. That’s despite a drop in the average interest rate on new loans. Analysts’ concerns that China’s economy relies too much on debt may turn out to be true.

China | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

China Beige Book Says Economy Slowing

Bloomberg | March 20, 2014

This article discusses the results of the China Beige Book Survey (CBB) for the 1st quarter of 2014 and notes that China’s economy slowed in quarter 1, adding to the signs that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang may face difficulties reaching a 7.5% growth expansion target for 2104 without stimulus.

China | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

China’s Economy Continues to Improve on Manufacturing

The Wall Street Journal | December 26, 2013

China’s stronger manufacturing and real estate sectors indicate a recovery, but there are some concerns on whether this is sustainable. The rise in inventory at manufacturing and mining firms is an issue. Major regional differences in retail growth were also discovered.

China | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship | Methodologies

THE MISREADING OF CHINA’S GROWTH DATA

By Leland R. Miller and Craig Charney | The Wall Street Journal | October 24, 2013

Even if not technically inaccurate, Beijing’s GDP numbers mislead investors into a misguided optimism over an economy slowing down. China Beige Book’s survey, contrary to official data, finds a mild growth slowdown. This divergence in growth stories reveals critical information before the Third Plenum economic conference.

China | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

How a Beige Book Could Shed Light on China’s Shadow Economy

By Dan Kedmey | Time Magazine | August 5, 2013

A lingering doubt hangs over ever rosy economic data on Chinese growth, as provided by their National Bureau of Statistics. Outdated Soviet-era growth measures and even some hints of embellishing figures have many longing for accurate data. Enter the China Beige Book, the most comprehensive and independent survey ever conducted on national, regional, and sectoral economic conditions in the People’s Republic of China.

China | Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship

THE CHINESE CASH CRUNCH IS NO SURPRISE

By Leland R. Miller and Craig Charney | The Wall Street Journal | June 13, 2013

For three consecutive quarters, firms have been borrowing less and paying higher rates in China. This is another signal that China has endured an overall tightening in credit this year. Investors should be careful in reading China’s official data, which pictures a rather rosy scenario.

Retailers, Inland Regions Drive China Economy in Q1 – Beige Book Survey

Reuters | March 27, 2013 | 2 pages

This Reuters article discusses the findings and data collection methodology of the China Beige Book (CBB).CBB reports strong revenue growth in the retail sector among signs of incoming uncertainties. Its respondents cover businesses of every size from the micro-level – employing up to 19 staff – to large firms with more than 500 employees.

Chinese Puzzle

By Nicholas Schmidle | The New Yorker | February 25, 2013 | 5 pages

This New Yorker article discusses the problems with regards to economic statistics and analysis on China provided by the Chinese government and potential solutions to this problem. China Beige Book provides an alternative way in measuring China’s economic situations. It believes in “the answer to better Chinese analysis is better data”.

What is Driving China’s Economy?

By Leland Miller | video | January 18, 2013

In this Fox Business interview, China Beige Book (CBB) President Leland Miller discusses the findings of the CBB. It confirms official statistics that Chinese economic growth is rebounding. Mr. Miller also talks about the real driver behind China’ economy.

Inside China’s Black Box of Statistics

By Rana Foroohar | Time Magazine | September 3, 2012 | 5 pages

This Time Magazine article discusses the findings of the recently released China Beige Book (CBB). The slowdown we’re seeing in China isn’t a crash landing, but could instead be the beginning of a much hoped-for rebalancing of the Chinese economy. However, not only is it tough to tell whether China is really growing, but official figures give us little sense of where growth is really coming from. Rather than rely on official nationwide data, CBB International divides the country into eight regions and interviews 150-plus C-suite Chinese executives in each region around the country about the state of business. The results are illuminating.

East Timor | Justice Sector Reform

New ‘China Beige Book’ Sees Growth Rebounding

By Prabha Natarajan | The Wall Street Journal | August 14, 2012 | 3 pages

This Wall Street Journal article discusses the findings of the China Beige Book (CBB). In its second China Beige Book released last month to clients, the report noted there were signs of a rebound largely fueled by increased retail sales, but problems continue to persist in industries like mining and minerals. While metro regions continued to see the strongest surges in retail spending, there were also sizeable spending increases in the central and northern regions. There are also signs of government stimulus in addition to monetary easing throughout the economy, policies geared to boost consumer spending, including purchases of homes and cars, and consumer spending and services are picking up the slack in exports and some manufacturing sectors.

East Timor

Law and Justice in East Timor: A Survey of Citizen Awareness and Attitudes Regarding Law and Justice in East Timor

Report | January 1, 2002 | 95 pages

As is the youngest nation of the new millennium, East Timor faces many challenges, particularly in the legal sector. The main national concerns are the economy and security. On the local level, people worry about “survival issues” such as jobs, food, and basic infrastructure. This report for the Asia Foundation based on survey research consisting of a random, representative countrywide sample of 1,114 in-person interviews assesses citizen knowledge and attitudes towards law and justice in East Timor.

Democracy - Civil Society | East Timor

East Timor Lorosa-e National Survey of Citizen Knowledge

Report | January 1, 2002 | 80 pages

This comprehensive survey consisting of 1558 in-person interviews was commissioned by the Asia Foundation with the goal of evaluating voter education programs to date and laying the groundwork for planning future civic education efforts. This report raises critical issues related to the national mood; voter and civic education issues; access to media; language use and preference; and demographics. It provides recommendations on each of these critical issues to increase voter knowledge and future civic participation.

Indonesia

Counter Insurgency | Indonesia | Pakistan

Counter Insurgency

Report | January 29, 2009 | 23 pages

This presentation evaluates public attitudes in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. The report studies how public discontent and attitudes further extremism or governance in these countries. Differing components of extremism, state capacity, and policy implications are compared between the three countries.

Conflict Resolution & Security | Development | Indonesia

Indonesia Update

By Craig Charney, Wayne Forrest, and Mary Natalegama | Transcript | January 31, 2008 | 29 pages

This Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) panel on Indonesia discusses the impact of the death of Indonesia’s longtime dictator Suharto. Polling clearly spoke to the consolidation of democracy. Charney underlined the progress the country has made, the contribution of U.S. democracy assistance, and the challenges ahead.

Corporate | Democracy - Civil Society | Indonesia

A Democratic Indonesian Tiger

By James Castle and Craig Charney | The Washington Post | August 1, 2007 | 5 pages

This Washington Post article discusses Indonesia’s comeback following the Asian financial crisis of 1997. The country has witnessed a collapsing economy, fleeing dictators and the establishment of democracy in the interval years. See what polling says about the country’s now and future.

Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship | Indonesia

Indonesian Attitudes 10 Years After Crisis

By James Castle and Todd Callahan | The Jakarta Post | May 21, 2007 | 2 pages

This article from the Jakarta Post discusses the results of a Charney Research poll that assesses Indonesian attitudes with regards to various issues the country faces 10 years after the Asian economic crisis. Findings on Indonesian’s minds considerably contrast with the results 10 year ago. Most Indonesians believe their country is on the right path.

Corporate | Economic Growth & Entrepreneurship | Indonesia

Indonesian Outlook Survey

Report | January 1, 2007 | 104 pages

This survey explores Indonesians’ attitudes towards public affairs and business. Among the topics examined were: views on the state of the country, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and other political figures, voting intentions for the 2009 elections, the economy, consumer purchasing intentions, business, policy issues affecting business and major firms, development organizations, corruption, security, terrorism, anti-Americanism, and trade boycotts.

Egypt | Indonesia | Morocco | Public Diplomacy

A New Beginning: Strategies for a More Fruitful Dialogue with the Muslim World

Report | January 1, 2005 | 6 pages

This teaching module for the Council on Foreign Relation (CFR) offers a discussion on a variety of topics with regards to the United States and the Muslim world. The issue of anti-Americanism in the Muslim world offers an ideal case study of the issue of “soft power.” This involves the aspects of international relations and foreign policy that focus on leadership through prestige, persuasion, and cultural and economic power, rather than hard power, the “bombs and rockets” that make up much of the traditional introductory international relations course or specialized course on US foreign policy.

Indonesia’s Elections: Nation Builders at Work

By Craig Charney and Tim Meisburger | The Straits Times | October 14, 2004 | 2 pages

This article for The Straits Times discusses the success of U.S. funded voter education efforts in Indonesia. They strengthened Indonesia’s fledgling democracy in the past two elections. Nation-building works can make a difference with supportive partners and a sympathetic public.

Indonesia: A Report on Public Opinion and the 2004 Elections

Report | February 1, 2003 | 19 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on survey research consisting of 30 in-depth interviews and 3 focus groups assesses Indonesian attitudes with regards to elections and democracy. It finds that the national mood is rather pessimistic, with the public discontented with the direction of the country and the work of the government, and the country’s key problems understood to be the economy, justice and corruption. Although some of the public know new elections are coming, and most know voters will have to re-register to participate, few know of direct Presidential elections.

Democracy - Civil Society | Gender | Indonesia

Democracy in Indonesia: A Survey of the Indonesian Electorate

Report | January 1, 2003 | 274 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on survey research consisting of a random nationally representative sample of 1056 in person interviews assesses voter knowledge and opinion, and identifies key issues and challenges facing election administrators and assistance providers in advance of the 2004 national elections. It covers the national mood, political participation, voter and civic education needs, gender, civil justice, media use and campaign recommendations, etc.

Indonesia: Citizens Have Poor Grasp of Democracy

By Vaudine England | South China Morning Post | March 16, 1999 | 2 pages

Only three per cent of Indonesians see any connection between democracy and elections but nearly everyone intends to vote in the country’s June poll. Indonesians also feel cautiously optimistic about their country’s direction and future despite their concerns about the economy, according to the first nationwide survey of Indonesians’ views. This article for the South China Morning Post discusses the results of a Charney Research survey that assesses Indonesian citizens’ opinions about the direction the country is heading in as well as upcoming national elections.

Indonesia National Voter Education Follow Up Survey

Report | February 1, 1999 | 347 pages

This report for the Asia Foundation based on survey research consisting of a randomly-drawn national sample of 1,008 in-person interviews assesses the impact of the voter education campaign before the June 1999 election. The basic conclusion of the survey is the election and the voter education campaigns conducted by The Asia Foundation, USAID, and other organizations succeeded, with the election being far more legitimate than voting was under President Suharto and few complaints of electoral abuses.