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Conflict Resolution & Security

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CONFLICT AND SECURITY: Polls Key to Understanding and Defeating ISIS

By Craig Charney | Insights | Series II | No. 6 | September 2014

Recently, ISIS seems to suddenly dominate international security headlines, seemingly from out of nowhere. Yet numerous polls in Iraq displayed warning signs early on. They also showed the challenges that lie ahead for the effort to beat back the extremist movement.

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Putin Blinked

By Thomas L. Friedman | The New York Times | May 27, 2014 | 1 pages

There was a moment at the height of the Cuban missile crisis in October 1962 when Soviet ships approached to within just a few miles of a U.S. naval blockade… The crisis in Ukraine was on course to become another case of brinkmanship. And it seems Putin just blinked.

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New Survey Finds Syrians Want Peace, But Still Far Apart on Terms

By Warren Hoge | Global Observatory | January 28, 2014

In this interview, Craig Charney discusses the result of a new survey of Syrians conducted by Charney Research for the Syria Justice and Accountability Center and offers a window into how Syrians feel about the current strife in their country. The survey used Syrian interviewers to contact people in seven different locations around Syria, with Charney emphasizing a caveat: “Almost everyone said no end to the conflict was in sight,” because the sides still seemed quite far apart on what the terms of a settlement might be.

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What Syrians Think: Views on the Conflict, Negotiations, and Transitional Justice

Report | January 2, 2014 | 92 pages

This article discusses the results of a qualitative study conducted by Charney Research consisting of 46 in-depth interviews among Syrians both inside and outside of Syria for the Syrian Justice and Accountability Center. The survey covers the following topics: Syrians’ attitudes about the current civil war; their views of key actors in both the government and the opposition; how they want the conflict resolved; and their attitudes toward accountability.

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Ask the Survey Doctor: Surveys in Conflict Zones and Non-Permissive Environments

By Craig Charney | Insights | Series II | No. 2 | January 2014

This email discussion offers insights about conducting surveys in conflict zones and non-permissive environments and covers the following topics: how to deal with the problem of a lack of good local organization to conduct research; keeping interviewers safely out of hotspots; and taking advantage of local knowledge to identify areas that might be off limits and therefore need to be substituted.

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Pakistan — the World’s Most Dangerous Place

By Arnaud De Borchgrave | Newsmax | January 11, 2011 | 6 pages

This article for Newsmax discusses the results of Charney Research Polling that assessed the attitudes of Pakistani citizens with regards to the direction of the country, the role of the United States, and feelings about the future. In the seven Federally Administered Tribal Areas where Taliban insurgents fighting U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan find safe havens (when they’re not being bombed by U.S. drones), 34 percent of 3 million people told pollsters they approved of al-Qaida’s Osama bin Laden, and 25 percent said the same of the Taliban. One-third were OK with suicide bombings.

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Indonesia Update

By Craig Charney, Wayne Forrest, and Mary Natalegama | Transcript | January 31, 2008 | 29 pages

This Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) panel on Indonesia discusses the impact of the death of Indonesia’s longtime dictator Suharto. Polling clearly spoke to the consolidation of democracy. Charney underlined the progress the country has made, the contribution of U.S. democracy assistance, and the challenges ahead.

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New Strategies for Afghanistan

Report | January 1, 2008 | 22 pages

Craig Charney presents the findings of the Charney/ABC News Afghanistan poll at the Center for National Policy. Charts reveal public opinion trends in Afghanistan and strategic implications for the rest of the world.

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Afghans’ Criticism of US Effort Rises: In the Southwest, Taliban Support Grows

Report | December 3, 2007 | 34 pages

This report, based on an ABC News/BBS/ARD poll, examines Afghans’ opinions both of U.S. efforts and the Taliban. Frustrated by ongoing violence and uneven development, Afghans have grown sharply more critical of U.S. efforts in their country—and in the beleaguered Southwest, support for the Taliban, ousted from power six years ago, is on the rise.

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Hearts and Minds: Afghan Opinion on the Taliban, Government, and International Forces

Report | August 1, 2007 | 6 pages

This brief from a discussion of a panel of experts at a meeting of the United States Institute of Peace’s Afghanistan Working Group discusses current trends in public opinion in Afghanistan with regards to the performance of the Afghan government and the Taliban resurgence. Since the election of new leaders and the establishment of a new constitution, the government of Afghanistan has been trying to prove its legitimacy and ability to foster stability, security, and the rule of law. The Taliban resurgence is playing a major role in public perception of the government’s competence and the role of the international forces. Understanding these current trends in public opinion can aid in tailoring the international intervention to ensure that prior progress is not lost and that elements corroding the strength of the state are diminished.

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Misunderstanding Afghanistan

By Craig Charney and Gary Langer | The Washington Post | December 17, 2006 | 5 pages

This Washington Post article discusses misconceptions within the West with regards to the conditions in Afghanistan. The full picture of Afghanistan’s rugged terrain is much more complex: While active, the Taliban lacks popular support. Though Karzai’s honeymoon is over, he retains majority backing. The Afghan state is relatively weak, but it is present—and popular, in most of the country. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is a country where the populace favors the U.S. and allied military presence.

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Strife Erodes Afghan Optimism Five Years After the Taliban’s Fall

Report | January 1, 2006 | 27 pages

This report of a survey conducted by Charney Research for ABC News/BBC World Services discuses the various reasons why optimism has declined within Afghanistan five years after the fall of the Taliban.

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Despite Deep Challenges in Daily Life, Afghans Express a Positive Outlook

Report | December 7, 2005 | 4 pages

This article of a survey conducted for ABC News by Charney Research of New York with field work by the Afghan Center for Social and Opinion Research in Kabul finds that four years after the fall of the Taliban, Afghans express both vast support for the changes that have shaken their country and remarkable optimism for the future, despite the deep challenges they face in economic opportunity, security and basic services alike.

Conflict Resolution & Stabilization

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CONFLICT AND SECURITY: Polls Key to Understanding and Defeating ISIS

By Craig Charney | Insights | Series II | No. 6 | September 2014

Recently, ISIS seems to suddenly dominate international security headlines, seemingly from out of nowhere. Yet numerous polls in Iraq displayed warning signs early on. They also showed the challenges that lie ahead for the effort to beat back the extremist movement.

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What Do Ukrainians Want?

By Craig Charney | Global Observatory | June 5, 2014

In the confused debate on Ukraine’s whirlwind of change since the fall of its pro-Russian president in February of 2014 and Russia’s subsequent takeover of Crimea, one key question has often been lost sight of: what do Ukrainians really want?

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New Survey Finds Syrians Want Peace, But Still Far Apart on Terms

By Warren Hoge | Global Observatory | January 28, 2014

In this interview, Craig Charney discusses the result of a new survey of Syrians conducted by Charney Research for the Syria Justice and Accountability Center and offers a window into how Syrians feel about the current strife in their country. The survey used Syrian interviewers to contact people in seven different locations around Syria, with Charney emphasizing a caveat: “Almost everyone said no end to the conflict was in sight,” because the sides still seemed quite far apart on what the terms of a settlement might be.

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Palestine, Israel, and Lebanon: Politics and Peace Prospects

Powerpoint Presentation | December 8, 2010 | 18 pages

This power point presentation summarizes the results of public opinion surveys conducted in Palestine, Israel, and Lebanon measuring citizens’ opinions regarding the political situation between these nations as well as the prospects for peace. Key findings from the opinions of 1,019 Palestinians, 1,020 Israelis, 1,000 Lebanese, and eight focus groups in Israel underscore that Palestinian mood has improved markedly, particularly in the West Bank, thanks to a better economy and security; Israelis are pessimistic and fearful about long-term security despite a strong economy and calm at present; and Labenese mood is darker than in 2008, though the economy and security are somewhat better.

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Iran: Public Opinion on Foreign, Nuclear, and Domestic Issues

Powerpoint Presentation | December 8, 2010 | 24 pages

This report discusses the results of a national telephone survey of 702 Iranians measuring public opinion on an array of foreign, nuclear and domestic issues, including the government and the economy. Key survey findings include that Iran’s public is sharply split on the government’s performance and divided on the presence of free speech, the rule of law, and the desirability of morality police. Most Iranians face stagnant or shrunken income and are economically discontented.

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Iranians Want Nuclear Arms, US Survey Finds

International Peace Institute | December 8, 2010 | 4 pages

This press release discusses the results of an Iranian public opinion poll conducted by Charney Research for the International Peace Institute (IPI). The poll reveals that while Iranians want nuclear weapons and reject proposed international deals to restrict production of enriched uranium, they are anxious about the international sanctions and isolation their country faces.

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Palestinian and Israeli Public Opinion: Recent Developments

Powerpoint Presentation | September 1, 2010 | 13 pages

This power point presentation discusses the results of recently published polls of Palestinians and Israelis measuring the opinions of both with regards to recent political developments between the two. Craig Charney presented trends in Palestinian and Israeli public opinion to a gathering of European and Middle Eastern foreign ministers at the International Peace Institute. Some of the key points in this power point presentation include: 1) Gaza flotilla affair damaged Fatah but boosted Hamas and Netanyahu. 2) Fayyad government and its state-building plan are popular with Palestinians, while Israeli government has soft domestic support. 3) Israelis feel anxious about international criticism and domestic dissent. 4) Israelis favor further building freeze only in areas Palestinians will receive. 5) Palestinians favor negotiations and the Arab Peace Initiative while Israelis are skeptical of the initiative.

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Palestinian Public Opinion: Peace, Politics, and Policy

Powerpoint Presentation | October 1, 2009 | 36 pages

This power point presentation discusses the results of a poll conducted in Palestine with a random sample of 2,400 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza dealing with peace prospects, internal politics, and policy issues. Read more about Palestinians attitude on 2-state solution, settlement freeze, checkpoints and its economy.

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Palestinians Want Peace Deal But Don’t Reject Hamas

By Douglas Hamilton | Reuters | September 25, 2009 | 3 pages

This Reuters article discusses a survey conducted by Charney Research for the International Peace Institute (IPI) showing that while most Palestinians who want a state of their own would like to achieve it through a peace deal with Israel, there is still substantial support for the Islamist Hamas group which favors resistance. The survey was carried out over the summer in Gaza, where Hamas rules, and the Israeli-occupied West Bank, under the authority of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah movement.

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CNN’s Christine Amanpour: Interviews on IPI Palestinian Poll and Prospects for Middle East Peace

By Christiane Amanpour and Terje Røed-Larsen, with Dan Meridor & Saeb Erakat | CNN | September 23, 2009 | 2 pages

This transcript of an interview conducted by CNN’s Christine Amanpour with Terej Roed-Larsen, President, International Peace Institute (IPI), discusses the results of an IPI poll conducted by Charney Research showing that Palestinians favor a two-state solution to the conflict with Israel. President Mahmoud Abbas’ popularity is on the rise—an encouraging news for peace in the Middle East.

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Pour une majorité de Libanais, les armes du Hezbollah augmentent le risque de guerre

By Sylviane Zehil | L'Orient Le Jour | September 23, 2008 | 2 pages

This article uncovers a survey result administrated by Charney Research that a majority of Lebanese (55%) believe that Hezbollah’s weapons increase the risk of war in Lebanon and will eventually be used in a war with Israel, while 41% believe they have a deterrent capacity, reveals a survey done by the international firm Charney Research for the International Peace Institute (IPI), a “think tank” dedicated to the prevention and settlement of armed conflicts between and within states. The survey was conducted on a sample of 1800 people residing in seven regions of Lebanon.

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Lebanon Public Opinion Survey

Powerpoint Presentation | January 1, 2008 | 16 pages

This power point presentation summarizes the results of a public opinion poll conducted in Lebanon consisting of a random-drawn sample of 1,800 in-person interviews measuring Lebanese opinions on an array of topics including the government, economy, military, and relations with Israel. Charney’s nationwide polls show that despite continuing sectarian divisions, the Lebanese have developed a shared vision of their future, as a normal, democratic state, at peace internally and with its neighbors.

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Ethnic Relations and Human Security in Eastern Sri Lanka

Report | January 1, 2004 | 76 pages

To address the ethnic conflicts in Sri Lanka’s Eastern Province that continues to threaten the stability in that country, Charney Research conducted a survey aimed at developing a framework for early warning and response to potential conflicts in the east. This report looks at peace process/dividend, problems facing the eastern province human security, representation/expression, ethnics relations/interactions and specific ethnic group impressions.

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Counter Insurgency

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Afghanistan’s Reasons for Optimism

By Craig Charney and James Dobbins | The Washington Post | May 31, 2011 | 4 pages

This article discusses the findings of a Washington Post-ABC News Poll in which Afghans express their optimism about their future. This surprising optimism has deep roots in the underlying realities. Afghanistan people are making sensible judgments.

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The Surge is Working

By Craig Charney | Newsweek | March 1, 2010 | 4 pages

This Daily Beast article discusses why President Obama’s Afghanistan counterinsurgency troop surge strategy is working. Taliban’s influence is dwindling all across Afghanistan, bar Helmand province—its stronghold. Afghanistan’s demography, sociology, military situation, and politics jointly explain this evolvement.

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Counter Insurgency

Report | January 29, 2009 | 23 pages

This presentation evaluates public attitudes in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. The report studies how public discontent and attitudes further extremism or governance in these countries. Differing components of extremism, state capacity, and policy implications are compared between the three countries.

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There’s Grounds for Hope in Afghanistan

By Craig Charney and Isobel Coleman | CFR.org | June 18, 2007 | 5 pages

This article for The Globe and Mail discusses the reasons to be hopeful with regards to the potential for positive changes in Afghanistan: Afghans themselves are changing their society, with Afghan women playing a leading role. Despite the Taliban’s military revival, Afghan women have won broad support for their rights to study, work, and vote, largely gained since the Taliban’s 2001 ouster, and overwhelmingly reject their former oppressors. But, at the same time, Afghans are struggling to reconcile many of their Islamic traditions with the modern world, as the case of women also shows.

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Justice Sector Reform

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Law and Justice in East Timor: A Survey of Citizen Awareness and Attitudes Regarding Law and Justice in East Timor

Report | January 1, 2002 | 95 pages

As is the youngest nation of the new millennium, East Timor faces many challenges, particularly in the legal sector. The main national concerns are the economy and security. On the local level, people worry about “survival issues” such as jobs, food, and basic infrastructure. This report for the Asia Foundation based on survey research consisting of a random, representative countrywide sample of 1,114 in-person interviews assesses citizen knowledge and attitudes towards law and justice in East Timor.

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Public Diplomacy

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Ask the Survey Doctor: Evaluating Public Diplomacy

By Joshua Marshall, US State Dept | Insights | Series II | No. 5 | July 2014

If you are struggling with surveys, evaluations, assessments, or market research in developing countries, email the Survey Doctor with your question. Public diplomacy depicts the programs and communications one country uses to reach the people of another. Learn how to evaluate it.

From the American People: Why the Story That U.S. Foreign Assistance Is Working Must be Told

Report | November 1, 2008 | 65 pages

This article argues that the public has an inaccurate image of US foreign assistance programs and recommend USAID to improve communication method. Foreign assistance does not communicate itself. Strategic, coherent and multi-year set of domestic and international communication methods will contribute to the final success of the program.

Smith Family Foundation Debate on Anti-Americanism in the Arab World

By Craig Charney | video | December 6, 2006

The Smith Family Foundation brings together some of the most prominent policy makers and authors in the world in a high profile forum devoted to public policy debates. The panel debated on whether US policies have been effective since 9/11 in reducing anti-Americanism sentiments.

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America’s Message to The Muslim World

By Craig Charney and Steven A. Cook | The Boston Globe | June 20, 2006 | 2 pages

The article suggests America’s message in the Muslim world should be: partners in development and democracy. America’s image in Muslim lands is starting to get better yet more remains to be done. One evidence, government-sponsored efforts are paltry comparing to private-sector marking campaigns.

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Here’s what America can do to be loved by Muslims

By Craig Charney | The Daily Star | July 25, 2005 | 2 pages

A rare window of opportunity to reach out to the Islamic World has emerged thanks to a series of developments this year. The article argues the keys to a new U.S. dialogue with the Muslim world are a humbler tone, a focus on partnership with local initiatives, and a sustained effort with major resources. Engaging local and regional news media is the first step and America’s image problem will take years to reshape.

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Anti-U.S. anger spreading in Islamic states, survey finds

By Brian Knowlton | The New York Times | May 19, 2005 | 5 pages

The article argued that anti-American anger in Islamic countries continues to spread across age and economic groups, according to a new survey of Muslim elites. Things that they desire most, respect and aid, are what America can provide but until now fail to deliver. Admiration for bin Laden still exists because of his fortitude against the dominant world power.

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Morocco: The Price of Anti-Americanism

By Craig Charney | Salon | January 7, 2005 | 9 pages

This Salon article discusses the anti-Americanism within Morocco and the hostility towards the United States’ efforts at offering assistance to Morocco as it undergoes reforms. From Islamist traditionalists to urban sophisticates, hostility to America is now so commonplace among Moroccans that it dictates reactions to U.S. actions and symbols.

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A New Beginning: Strategies for a More Fruitful Dialogue with the Muslim World

Report | January 1, 2005 | 6 pages

This teaching module for the Council on Foreign Relation (CFR) offers a discussion on a variety of topics with regards to the United States and the Muslim world. The issue of anti-Americanism in the Muslim world offers an ideal case study of the issue of “soft power.” This involves the aspects of international relations and foreign policy that focus on leadership through prestige, persuasion, and cultural and economic power, rather than hard power, the “bombs and rockets” that make up much of the traditional introductory international relations course or specialized course on US foreign policy.

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Here and Now – Improving America’s Image in the Muslim World

By Craig Charney | NPR | January 1, 2005

NPR’s “Here & Now” interviews Craig Charney and Steven Cook on how people in the Arab world see the Iraqi conflict as well as their views on U.S. public diplomacy in the Muslim world. Warlords still pose serious threat to the rollout of local free and democratic elections and America’s prominent role in the Muslim world should include the establishment of democratic institutions in the region.

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